WHY would any sane mother go through any significant procedure to test her unborn child for disease or malformation? There is only one reason I can think of. That reason is, if a problem is found, the mother may choose to kill her baby.
Do not test. Why waste the money? I hear it costs upwards of $5000 New Taiwan dollars to test for Down Syndrome. Accept the fact that with a child comes responsibility and the guarantee of a changed life, more work. Would you really consider killing in order to avoid that responsibility?
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Wednesday, 3 February 2010
Long Term Trends of Repeating Earthquakes.
Can a sequence of repeating earthquakesa (repeaters) describe what is happening within the Earth?
I propose a study of repeaters to look for long term trends in arrival times from assumed seismic event locations at known seismic recording station locations. We need to use repeating events to validate the assumption of seismic location, otherwise every event might be useful for this kind of study. This study will require the following analysis procedure to be done on a long term record of data.
Discussion, Assumptions and Predictions.
The inspiration for this study is to begin analysis of the seismic record outside of the assumption of plate tectonic theory. I do not believe that plate tectonic theory provides any useful insights into earthquake behaviour. I will undertake this study based on one assumption, that is Earthquakes are the result of gravitational settling. Gravitational settling is the action of the planet as a response to its preference to be spherical due to its own gravity. Erosion is gravitational settling. Avalanches, lahars and landslides are gravitational settling. Glacial movement is gravitational settling. I am working on the assumption that tectonic movement is the result of a large scale example of the same thing and that seismicity is one of the observations we can make from this subterranean process.
This will be a long term endeavour. I would estimate that at least 10 or 20 years of data would be required to establish statistical confidence in any trends discovered. We have a numberd of years on record in Jiayi, but it is difficult for me to estimate how much data might be necessary.
I predict that a trend will be found with 50 years worth of reliable data. I tentativelye predict that in the Jiayi area the trend will be toward a greater difference between arrival times of repeating events at different seismic station locations. This prediction is based on the gravitational environment Taiwan is located in. Taiwan lies between the continental mass of China and Russia and the negative mass of the Pacific basin, but on the continental side of the division between the two environments, The Ryuku Trench and the Manila Trench. Gravitational settling will therefore work towards the Pacific and from the continent. This assumed motion will lessen the gravitational stress upon Taiwan, allow its mass to expand and thus decrease wave propagation velocities.
Notes.
a Definition and citation for repeaters needed.
b The process for the standardisation of waveforms needs to be clarified.
c Citation needed. Corrections might be developed so that trends in such affected data might be assumed. Such corrections would rely upon the assumption that there is in fact a trend in effect.
d Number required.
e Tentative because there is more happening to the east and because it looks like GPS measurements would predict the opposite.
Bibliography.
Geller, R. J., and C. S. Mueller (1980). Four similar earthquakes in central California, Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, no. 10, 821–824.
I propose a study of repeaters to look for long term trends in arrival times from assumed seismic event locations at known seismic recording station locations. We need to use repeating events to validate the assumption of seismic location, otherwise every event might be useful for this kind of study. This study will require the following analysis procedure to be done on a long term record of data.
- Choose a study area. I have the Jiayi (Chiayi, 嘉義) area in central Taiwan (add longitude and latitude description). With more understanding perhaps a study area can be purposely selected.
- Standardiseb and analyse waveforms. Analysis will produce sets of repeaters.
- Repeaters should show a regular, long term and stable pattern of repetition. Major events might be the cause of changes to travel times between repeaters and seismic stations or major events might produce many repeaters in a short timec.
- Assume an event location for a group of repeaters. Repeating events can be assumed to originate within a quarter of their dominant wavelength (Geller and Mueller, 1980).
- Match repeater waveforms arriving at multiple seismic stations.
- Measure repeater arrival time differences between different stations.
- Look for long term trends in the data. A long term trend might be toward either shorter differences or longer differences. No observed trends will render this study redundant.
Discussion, Assumptions and Predictions.
The inspiration for this study is to begin analysis of the seismic record outside of the assumption of plate tectonic theory. I do not believe that plate tectonic theory provides any useful insights into earthquake behaviour. I will undertake this study based on one assumption, that is Earthquakes are the result of gravitational settling. Gravitational settling is the action of the planet as a response to its preference to be spherical due to its own gravity. Erosion is gravitational settling. Avalanches, lahars and landslides are gravitational settling. Glacial movement is gravitational settling. I am working on the assumption that tectonic movement is the result of a large scale example of the same thing and that seismicity is one of the observations we can make from this subterranean process.
This will be a long term endeavour. I would estimate that at least 10 or 20 years of data would be required to establish statistical confidence in any trends discovered. We have a numberd of years on record in Jiayi, but it is difficult for me to estimate how much data might be necessary.
I predict that a trend will be found with 50 years worth of reliable data. I tentativelye predict that in the Jiayi area the trend will be toward a greater difference between arrival times of repeating events at different seismic station locations. This prediction is based on the gravitational environment Taiwan is located in. Taiwan lies between the continental mass of China and Russia and the negative mass of the Pacific basin, but on the continental side of the division between the two environments, The Ryuku Trench and the Manila Trench. Gravitational settling will therefore work towards the Pacific and from the continent. This assumed motion will lessen the gravitational stress upon Taiwan, allow its mass to expand and thus decrease wave propagation velocities.
Notes.
a Definition and citation for repeaters needed.
b The process for the standardisation of waveforms needs to be clarified.
c Citation needed. Corrections might be developed so that trends in such affected data might be assumed. Such corrections would rely upon the assumption that there is in fact a trend in effect.
d Number required.
e Tentative because there is more happening to the east and because it looks like GPS measurements would predict the opposite.
Bibliography.
Geller, R. J., and C. S. Mueller (1980). Four similar earthquakes in central California, Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, no. 10, 821–824.
Friday, 15 January 2010
How is Man Responsible for an Earthquake?
How Man is to blame for Earthquakes.
In the beginning God created the world (Gen 1:1) and He created it good (Gen 1:31). He created it as a home for men (Gen 1:28, 2:15) where He could interact with them (Gen 3:9). He called this place where men could interact with God Heaven (Gen 1:8).
God created men in order to establish relationship with them .. a relationship based on trust and love.
A relationship based on faith and love cannot exist without both parties being capable of rejecting that relationship.
Man rejected God (Genesis 3:22-24, Romans 3:23).
God, willing to show mercy (Gen 2:17, Gen 3:21), then began on His plan to reconcile the world to Him (Rev 13:8). The only way men's lives can be fulfilled as designed is in relationship with God (1 Cor 15:20-23). In order to teach men this fact, He withdrew from a complete relationship based on faith and love to a position of authority. But He did not disown His loving nature (2 Tim 2:13) nor did He suddenly discover authority.
This means not only has man been increasingly left to fend for himself and suffer the consequences of his mistakes, but also the earth has been left to its own devices (Rom 8:19-21).
When the history of mankind in rebellion against God has run its course God will create a new earth and a new heaven (probably on that new earth) and those who choose to be on the ark, be in the covenant, come under His commandments, be in the body, be in the kingdom, or simply show faith will join Him (John 14:1-4). Those who reject Him will be left on this earth to fend for themselves as they so chose.
When God created our current earth He had some features that He maintained. Those features provided a source of water that is not functioning today (Gen 2:10). When he left man to his own devices He also quit maintaining the earth. The source of water failed, pressure built up and the earth blew its top (Gen 7:11). This event flooded the earth, sent parts of it into orbit and destroyed all the land animals and all of humanity except for Noah (2 Pet 3:6).
After this massive eruption the earth was significantly non-spherical. Physics dictates that the greater this non-sphericity the more energy is available to reform the earth into a sphere. That energy dissipated rapidly at first until now there is little remaining. What is remaining can (along with other factors) cause earthquakes.
If we were curious and faithful enough we would be able to investigate to establish these events and what the original features were (Rom 1:18-23). But given that the world has rejected God it comes as no surprise that the world would generally reject His account of its history (2 Pet 2-3). Nobody likes to be reminded of their failure.
That's how man's rejection of God causes earthquakes.
In the beginning God created the world (Gen 1:1) and He created it good (Gen 1:31). He created it as a home for men (Gen 1:28, 2:15) where He could interact with them (Gen 3:9). He called this place where men could interact with God Heaven (Gen 1:8).
God created men in order to establish relationship with them .. a relationship based on trust and love.
A relationship based on faith and love cannot exist without both parties being capable of rejecting that relationship.
Man rejected God (Genesis 3:22-24, Romans 3:23).
God, willing to show mercy (Gen 2:17, Gen 3:21), then began on His plan to reconcile the world to Him (Rev 13:8). The only way men's lives can be fulfilled as designed is in relationship with God (1 Cor 15:20-23). In order to teach men this fact, He withdrew from a complete relationship based on faith and love to a position of authority. But He did not disown His loving nature (2 Tim 2:13) nor did He suddenly discover authority.
This means not only has man been increasingly left to fend for himself and suffer the consequences of his mistakes, but also the earth has been left to its own devices (Rom 8:19-21).
When the history of mankind in rebellion against God has run its course God will create a new earth and a new heaven (probably on that new earth) and those who choose to be on the ark, be in the covenant, come under His commandments, be in the body, be in the kingdom, or simply show faith will join Him (John 14:1-4). Those who reject Him will be left on this earth to fend for themselves as they so chose.
When God created our current earth He had some features that He maintained. Those features provided a source of water that is not functioning today (Gen 2:10). When he left man to his own devices He also quit maintaining the earth. The source of water failed, pressure built up and the earth blew its top (Gen 7:11). This event flooded the earth, sent parts of it into orbit and destroyed all the land animals and all of humanity except for Noah (2 Pet 3:6).
After this massive eruption the earth was significantly non-spherical. Physics dictates that the greater this non-sphericity the more energy is available to reform the earth into a sphere. That energy dissipated rapidly at first until now there is little remaining. What is remaining can (along with other factors) cause earthquakes.
If we were curious and faithful enough we would be able to investigate to establish these events and what the original features were (Rom 1:18-23). But given that the world has rejected God it comes as no surprise that the world would generally reject His account of its history (2 Pet 2-3). Nobody likes to be reminded of their failure.
That's how man's rejection of God causes earthquakes.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
